When the Managers Become Hamlet
This refers to the famous play "Hamlet" of Shakespeare. Hamlet was a character who disagreed with what he was trying to do, always thinking carefully about making decisions, and sometimes avoiding or delaying a decision. This could mean a disaster if applied in the case of a work manager because he had to take a quick decision on his toes and take it. This is even more important in today's world as a market, and even momentary hesitation can cause millions of people to lose trade.
Every day we make decisions of different importance, so the idea that decisions can be a fairly sophisticated art may start to look very strange. However, research has shown that most people in decision making are far worse than they think.
What is Decision Making?
1. What is decision making? Making decisions means that there are other options to consider, in which case we want to identify not only those choices as much as possible, but the ones that best suit our goals, desires, lifestyles, values, and so on.
2. It should be noted here that uncertainty is reduced rather than eliminated. Sole decisions are rarely made, since complete knowledge of all alternatives is seldom possible. Therefore, each decision involves a certain risk.
Types of decisions
There are several basic types of decisions.
1. Decide whether or not. This is a yes / no decision or a decision we must make before we continue to select alternatives. Should I buy a new TV? Should I travel this summer? Decide whether to pass the weighing cause pro and con. It is important to know whether or not to make a decision, since we often assume that the decision begins with the determination of the alternatives, assuming that a decision to make a choice has been made.
2. Which decided. These decisions involve the selection of one or more substitutions from a set of possibilities based on the degree of each alternative measurement up to a set of predetermined criteria.
3. There is a decision.
Most people carry a set of contingent decisions that have been made, just waiting for the right conditions or opportunities to arise. Time, energy, price, availability, opportunity, encouragement – all of these factors can be necessary conditions to be met before we can take action on our decisions.
decide whether or not … to select a standard …
Decision Making Environment
Each decision is made in a decision-making environment defined as information, such as information, decision making, Alternatives, values and preferences. The ideal decision-making environment will include all possible information, all possible information, and all possible choices. However, information and alternatives are limited because the time and effort to obtain information or identify alternatives is limited. The main challenge in decision-making is uncertainty, and the main objective of decision analysis is to reduce uncertainty. It is almost impossible for us to get all the information necessary to make a deterministic decision, so most decisions involve undeniable amounts of risk.
Delaying a decision within a reasonable time possible and then providing three benefits:
1. The decision-making environment will be larger and provide more information. There is also time for a more extended analysis.
2. New substitutes may be identified or created.
3. The preferences of decision makers may change.
Many decision makers tend to seek more information than to make the information needed to make a good decision. When seeking and getting too much information, one or more problems may arise. (1) Delay in decision-making due to the time required to obtain and process additional information. This delay can compromise the effectiveness of a decision or solution. (2) Information overload occurs. In this state, there is a lot of information available to the actual decline in decision-making capacity, because the entire information can no longer be properly managed or assessed. The main problem caused by information overload is forgetfulness. When too much information is recorded into memory, especially in a short time, some information (usually the information received earlier) will be rolled out.
Sometimes given examples of who spent the days in the information heavy workshop. At the end of the day, he not only could not remember the first half of the workshop, but he also forgot where he stopped his car this morning.
(3) The information will be used selectively. That is, the decision maker will select from all available information only facts that support a pre-conceived solution or location. (4) mental fatigue occurs, resulting in slower work or poor quality of work
human thinking to deal with limited amount of information. Unless information is intentionally selected, processing will be biased towards the first part of the received information.
A common misconception about decision making is that decisions are isolated from each other: you gather information, explore alternatives and make choices, not Think about anything in the past. The fact is that decisions are made in the context of other decisions. The typical metaphor used to explain this is a stream. A series of decisions around a given decision, many early decisions led to this decision and made it both possible and limited.
As an example, when you enter a store to buy a VCD or TV, you are faced with pre-select alternatives to the store. In the universe model may have 200 models, but you will choose, only a dozen. In this case, your decision is limited by what others decide about the model
It is important to realize that every decision you make affects the decision flow and the set of available alternatives Immediate and future. In other words, decisions have far-reaching effects.
accepted. Those who must implement the decision or who will be affected must accept it intellectually and emotionally.
Acceptance is a key factor, as it occasionally conflicts with one of the quality criteria. In this case, the best approach is to choose a lower quality solution, it has a greater acceptance.
For example, when the cake mix is first put on the market, the manufacturer puts everything in the highest quality and most efficient solution for the mixture. Just add water. However, the mix does not sell well – they are not accepted. After investigation, the manufacturers found that women do not like mixing, because the use of mixing makes them feel guilty: they are not good wives, because they are taking a shortcut to make a cake. The solution is to mix the eggs and sometimes the milk so that the woman will have something to do to "do" the cake instead of just adding water. Now, they have to add eggs and milk to make them feel more useful. The need to feel useful and contributors is one of the most basic human needs. Thus, while the new solution is less theoretically inefficient, it is easier to accept.
Therefore, if the next method has more support, then the following method can produce more results. Then one of the most important considerations in decision-making is the human factor. Always consider a decision based on human implementation
One might be technically brilliant but sociologically stupid decisions will not work. Only through thorough (preferably enthusiastic) implementation and implementation of the decision-making in accordance with the expected way to work.
1. autocratic. The manager makes a decision based on what he can gather. Then he must explain the decision to the group and get their acceptance.
2. group. The group shares ideas and analyzes and agrees to implement the decision. Studies have shown that the group often has values, sensations and reactions that are different from what managers think. No one knows the group and its taste and preferences and the group itself.
There are two types of group decision sessions. The first is free discussion, where the issues are simply discussed in the forum.
Another type of group decision-making is developmental discussion or structured discussion. The problem here is divided into several steps, with a smaller portion of a specific target. Development Discussion (1) Ensuring a systematic coverage of a topic, (2) Ensuring that all members of the group discuss the same aspects of the problem at the same time.
Some Decision Strategies
1. optimization. This is the strategy for selecting the best solution for the problem, finding as many alternatives as possible and choosing the best solution. Can be thoroughly optimized depending on
1. The Importance of the Problem
2. Available time to fix it
3. Cost of Alternative Solutions
4. Resources, availability of knowledge
5. Personal Psychology and Values
Please note that the collection of complete information and consideration of all alternatives is seldom possible for most major decisions and therefore restrictions on substitutes must be imposed.
2. satisfaction. In this strategy, choose the first satisfactory alternative to the best alternative. If you are very hungry, you can choose to stop at the first decent restaurant in the next town instead of trying to choose the best restaurant from all (optimization strategy). Satisfactory words are satisfactorily and adequately combined. For many small decisions, such as where to stop, what to drink, which pen to use, which tie to wear, and so on, the satisfaction of the strategy is perfect
3. Maximax. This stands for Maximize Max. The strategy focuses on the assessment and then selects alternatives based on its maximum possible return. This is sometimes called the optimist's strategy, because the favorable results and high potential are areas of concern. This is a good strategy, when the risk is the most acceptable when the broken philosophy of freedom to rule
4. Maxim. This stands for Maximize Min. In this strategy, the pessimist, the worst possible outcome of each decision is considered, and the decision with the highest minimum is chosen. Maxim's orientation is good when the consequences of a failed decision are particularly harmful or unpopular. Maximin focuses on the residual value of the decision, or the guaranteed return of the decision.
1. Decide on the decision to be made with the target (s) Should be achieved
2. Acquire the facts
3. Develop alternatives
4. Evaluate each alternative
 Only the risk-takers are truly free. All consequence decisions involve risks. There is no risk that you can not grow, improve or even live
2. There is really no such thing as permanent security on anything on earth. Taking risks is not really safer than taking them because your status quo can be changed at any time without taking action on your part.
3. You should be scared when you are at risk. Admit your fear of failure, rejection, failure
4. Risks usually include a degree of separation anxiety
5. Determine whether risk is necessary or desirable. Think carefully before taking action so you do not have unnecessary risk.
6. Risk is justified when you are calm and thoughtful. Do not take risks because you are angry, hurt, depressed, desperate or afraid. Do not risk taking revenge or injuring others. Do not take risks when you can not think rationally.
3. There is a goal. When you are adventurous, have a clear purpose so that you will know, after the fact, whether or not you succeed. What will bring risk to complete?
4. Determine possible losses and gains. In other words, know what the consequences of failure. Unless you know fairly well what the loss and the proceeds will be, you do not understand the risks. There is a tendency to underestimate or overestimate the consequences of risk. Underestimation can lead to surprising damage, cost, frustration, pain, anyway. But overestimation is also a problem,
In fact, it is a good idea to list all the good expected results of successful results and all undesirable effects of unsuccessful results.
5. Try to accurately estimate the probability of each case. Is the probability of success is one-twentieth, one-tenth, one-hundredth, one-millionth? This can sometimes be difficult, but usually you can guess the probability of an order of magnitude.
6. If possible, take one risk at a time. Divide your actions or goals as closely as possible so that you do not combine risk unless absolutely necessary. At the same time the increased risk of anxiety, resulting in confusion, so failure analysis is very difficult.
7. Use imaging or RPG to accomplish various possibilities, successes and failures so that you will be mentally prepared for any outcome. Think about what you can go, what may go wrong, and how you will respond or adjust each possibility.
8. Use the plan. Set up a schedule that lists the steps to be performed. Use the plan as a guide, but flexible.
9. Action decisive. When you assess the risk and decide it is worth it, action. Go ahead. Do not hesitate at the threshold or halfway. Once you're gone, be brave. Molars and move forward. Do not delay, do not half-hearted.
10. Do not expect full success. You may get it, of course, but chances are that the outcome of your risk will not be what you imagined and will have a degree of success over absolute success or failure.
The key point is that all of us, in making a decision, need to think carefully about what we absolutely need to know in order to make a good decision rather than delaying the decision to make and tilt More time crutches are collected ……… Where the manager becomes wheat